Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
