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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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