War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.
Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.
A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict
The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.
Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.
"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.
More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.
Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.
Immense Challenges and Pressure
Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.
The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.
All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.
A Limited Vote
Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.
There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.
Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.
Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.
Criticism and Rejection
"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.
Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.
The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".
"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.
Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".